Mushure meGore Idzva reChinese,rebarmitengo yeramangwana yakadonha zvakanyanya kwemazuva maviri akateedzana ekutengesa, uye yakawedzera zvakare mumazuva maviri akatevera, asi kushaya simba kwese kwakakunda.Kubva pasvondo raKukadzi 23 (Kukadzi 19-23), kontrakiti huru yebhari yakavharwa paRMB 3,790/tonne, pasi RMB 64/tonne, kana 1.66%, zvichienzaniswa nezuva rekupedzisira rekutengesa pamberi peChinese New Year (Kukadzi 8th) .
Masvondo 2-3 anotevera, rebar mutengo maitiro ichave maitiro ekuratidzira.Ichi chinyorwa chichaongorora muchidimbu kubva kune macro uye maindasitiri maonero.
Zvikonzero zvekutenderera kwazvino kwekuderera kwemutengo rebar?
Kutanga, kubva pagore rekarenda, musika wemusika mushure meMutambo weChirimo kwemavhiki maviri kusvika kumavhiki matatu uri mumamiriro ekusamira, mushure meMutambo weChirimo mvura zhinji nechando munyika yese zvakawedzera kuderera kwekuda kwemusika.
Kechipiri, mushure mezororo reMutambo weChirimo, coke uye coking inventory kushandiswa kwemabhizinesi esimbi kwakadzikira zvakanyanya pane zvaitarisirwa, uye data rekutakura simbi panguva yeMutambo weChirimo raive rakakwira zvakanyanya kupfuura zvaitarisirwa.Izvi zvakakonzera kudzikira nekukurumidza kwemitengo yezvinhu, kuvhura nzvimbo yekuti rebar iwedzere kudonha.
Chechitatu, runyerekupe rwepaInternet rwakapfuura rwekuti Yunnan akamisa kuvakwa kwemamwe mapurojekiti ezvivakwa akadzikisawo zvinotarisirwa nemusika zvepolicy kusvika pamwero wakati.
Chechina, kubva kudivi remhiri kwemakungwa, iyo January US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data yakapfuura zvinotarisirwa, zvakasanganiswa nekuita kwechangobva kuitika kweFederal Reserve, iyo node yenguva yekuderedzwa kwemhindu kana kumwe kunonoka.Izvi zvakakonzera kuti goho reUS bond rirambe rakakwirira, zvichiwedzera kudzvanyirira maitiro emitengo yeramangwana revatema.
Iyo indasitiri cheni haina logic yekuenderera mberi isina kunaka mhinduro munguva pfupi
Mushure meNdira, nekuda kwekudzikiswa kwedziviriro yekuchengetedzwa kwezvakatipoteredza uye nhanho yekuvandudza mune purofiti yemabhizinesi esimbi, kubuda kwemabhizinesi esimbi kwenguva refu kwakawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma.Kubva svondo rekupedzisira pamberi peMutambo weChirimo (Kukadzi 5-9), avhareji yemazuva ese kugadzirwa kwesimbi kwemabizimisi anoputika e247 emabhizinesi esimbi munyika yose kwakawedzera kwemavhiki mashanu akateedzana, nekuwedzerwa kudzokororwa kwe59,100 tonnes.Vhiki rapfuura (Kukadzi 19-23), nekuda kwekuderera kwemitengo yesimbi, mabhizinesi esimbi akadzokorora chiyero chedanho rekuwedzera, uye avhareji yemazuva ese kugadzirwa kwesimbi kwakaonekwa 10,400 matani ekudonha.
Mukuwedzera, nekuda kwesimbi yemagetsi purofiti yesimbi ichiri kuwanikwa, kunyangwe mushure meJanuary pfupi-process rebar kugadzirwa kunoratidza maitiro emwaka ekuderera, asi kuderera kwakanyanya kudiki pane yakafanana nguva mumakore apfuura.Muvhiki yekutanga mushure meChinese New Year (19-23 Kukadzi), kupfupika-kuyerera rebar kubuda kwaive 21,500 matani, kuwedzera kwe0.25 miriyoni matani gore-pagore (karenda remwedzi).
Munguva pfupi, vhiki yekutanga mushure meMutambo weChirimo nekuda kwekuderera kwakanyanya kwemitengo yesimbi, mabhizinesi esimbi kuti atangezve kugadzirwa anotarisirwa kupera simba, uye cheni yeindasitiri yakaonekwa kune yakatenderedza yakaitwa isina kunaka mhinduro.Zvisinei, ndinotenda kuti misika yemazuva ano haina simba rakasimba rekugadzirisa mhinduro.
Tarisa pane zvinodiwa uye kuita mutemo mushure mepakati paKurume
Iyo pfungwa inotonga kutengeswa kwemusika musvondo rekutanga mushure meMutambo weChirimo ndiyo inonyanya kutarisiro isina kusimba yekuda uye kuderera kwekutsigiro kwemutengo.Yakasanganiswa nekuongorora kwekare, ndinotenda kuti, kana pasina kukanganisa kukuru kwakashata, mitengo yenguva pfupi rebar plate inowira pasi pemutengo wemagetsi emagetsi esimbi yemupata simba hazvibviri.
Asi mushure mekupinda munaKurume, musika uchabhadhara zvakanyanya kudiwa uye mamiriro ekudzika kwepolicy.Demand mamiriro ndiyo yakanyanya intuitive yekutarisa chiratidzo mune inventory data, uye inoda kutarisisa kune hesita yepamusoro painofanirwa kuoneka uye mushure meiyo de-stocking kumhanya.Vhiki rekutanga mushure meMutambo weChirimo, zviwanikwa zvemarebar zvakakwira kusvika pamamiriyoni gumi nesere.Yakasanganiswa nehuchokwadi hwechido chezvino chisina simba, ndinotenda kuti mukana wekuunganidza zvinyorwa muhafu yekutanga yaMarch yakakwirira kudarika inotarisirwa.Kana tarisiro iyi ichiremekedzwa, zvino ichava nemigumisiro yakakura pane zvinotarisirwa zvemusika.Kana iri danho rezvematongerwo enyika, rinonyanya kutarisana nezvikamu zviviri zveNational People's Congress zvezviratidziro zvakakosha zvehupfumi uye nekugona kuunzwa kwemitemo, senge GDP yekukura chinangwa, fiscal deficit rate, uye real estate policy.
Kupfupisa, mushure mekudonha kwakanyanya muvhiki yekutanga mushure meMutambo weChirimo, mukusavapo kwekukanganisa kutsva, mitengo yerebar kwenguva pfupi haina simba rekuramba ichidonha zvakanyanya, zvinotarisirwa kuti munguva pfupi iyo inoshanda. huwandu hwemutengo we rebar we3730 rmb/tonne ~ 3950 rmb/tonne.mushure mepakati paKurume, zvinodikanwa kuti titarise pane zvinodiwa uye mamiriro ekudzika kwepolicy.
Nguva yekutumira: Mar-01-2024